| Bin | n | Mean predicted | Empirical hit rate | 95% CI | Δ (empirical − predicted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 23 | 48.2% | 69.6% | [49.1%, 84.4%] | +21.4pp |
| 50–60% | 19 | 50.8% | 52.6% | [31.7%, 72.7%] | +1.9pp |
| Brier: 0.2538 | ECE: 0.1257 | Phase 3→4 gate: |Δ| ≤ 3pp across all buckets | |||
| Bin | n | Mean predicted | Empirical hit rate | 95% CI | Δ (empirical − predicted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 23 | 48.2% | 69.6% | [49.1%, 84.4%] | +21.4pp |
| 50–60% | 19 | 50.8% | 52.6% | [31.7%, 72.7%] | +1.9pp |
| Brier: 0.2538 | ECE: 0.1257 | Phase 3→4 gate: |Δ| ≤ 3pp across all buckets | |||